Snowden moved to Russia, not the U.S. “stranded” him there
(originally posted 29.11.2015 on Google+)

Snowden’s and his supporters narrative about how he “stranded” in Moscow is this: Snowden left Hong Kong towards Latin America. Since there are no direct flights, he had to go over Russia. And while he was on the flight from Hong Kong to Moscow, the Americans revoked his passport, preventing him from taking the connecting flight to Latin America. It was never his intention to stay in Russia, the Americans stranded him there.

But this story doesn’t add up in many ways and is contradicted by various other reports and facts.

First of all, if we assume Snowden really intended to go to Latin America, he chose a very strange route: Very few people would choose a journey from Hawaii over Hong Kong and Moscow to Latin America. Especially if you consider he had plenty of time. He left Hawaii on May 20, and escaped Hong Kong on June 23. This is more than one month.

Snowden supporters often argue that the Americans deliberately stranded him in Moscow, that they waited until he boarded on the flight to Moscow to revoke his passport. They say that he would not have been able to leave Hong Kong if his passport was revoked earlier. But this is simply not true.
It was, of course, not possible for U.S. authorities to physically revoke his passport. So no officer who just checked his passport would have noticed that it was revoked. Only if the passport was scanned and its validity was checked against a database, it was possible to notice the revocation. But this is done only by the airline -- which was, surprise surprise, the Russian Aeroflot. It is safe to assume that Aeroflot ignored the passport revocation if they were told to do so by Russian authorities.
According to press reports[1], Snowden's passport was revoked on Saturday, June 22, but Snowden left Hong Kong one day later, June 23. Snowden’s supporters often argue it was still possible the revocation was after his leave, due to the time difference between Washington and Hong Kong. But this is very unlikely:
Snowden landed in Moscow on Sunday, June 23, 5 pm Moscow time[2]. This means the flight was on time and he departed Hong Kong around 12 am (the scheduled departure for this flight is 11:55 am) Hong Kong time. The time difference between Washington D.C. and Hong Kong is 13 hours. So if the reports are correct, and the passport was revoked on June 22, it must have been after 11 pm, if it was after Snowden departed Hong Kong -- this sounds very, very unlikely. It is much more likely the passport was revoked before he boarded, the Russians allowed him to fly anyway, and the Chinese just didn’t care (or maybe were informed too late, or both).

To “strand him in Moscow” also made little sense from the American point of view. The main American interest at this time was to have Snowden arrested as soon as possible. At the time before Snowden left Hong Kong, it was clear that China would not grant him asylum. They obviously also did not like the “bad press” of being the ones who handed Snowden over to the U.S., but Hong Kong had an extradition treaty with the U.S., so sooner or later they had to comply with it. It was clearly in the American interest to keep him in Hong Kong, and not let him escape to a country with no extradition treaty (like it then actually happened). And this was for sure the most important reason why his passport was revoked.
Some may ask the question why it the took 2 weeks to revoke his passport after his identity was made public (on June 9), however it should be considered that a passport revocation is a bureaucratic process in a democratic, law-based country, requiring at least public charges. According to this media report[1], charges against Snowden were filed on June 14, and unsealed June 21, one day before the revocation. This sounds like a plausible timeline.

The “stranded in Moscow” story then continues with the saga that Snowden was stuck in the Moscow airport’s transit zone for about a month. But nobody did see him there (except, of course, while the infamous press conference), although thousands of journalists and tourists looked for him. The only explanation is that Russian authorities already took good care of him.

On the other side, there are various reports that Snowden was already in touch with Russian authorities while he was still in Hong Kong. The Russian newspaper Kommersant reported that Snowden stayed at Russian consulate[3], that he even celebrated his 30th birthday there. Vladimir Putin himself acknowledged that Snowden contacted Russian diplomats in Hong Kong[4]. And there is a serious press report that Snowden was observed three times on CCTV cameras entering the building where the Russian consulate is located[5].
Snowden’s lawyers denied the reports, but he himself never clearly confirmed or denied if he was in touch with Russian authorities while in Hong Kong.

Julian Assange admitted that he advised Snowden to go to Moscow[6].

With all the above facts in mind, it is much more likely that Snowden’s escape to Russia was well planed. It is possible that his preferred asylum was in China. China, like Russia, would surely have the power to protect him from the U.S., if they wanted to. That was most likely the motivation for Snowden to reveal NSA spying on China and Hong Kong, what even Glenn Greenwald commented as “What motivated that leak though was a need to ingratiate himself to the people of Hong Kong and China.”[6].
But while it became clear that China would decline to grant him asylum, Snowden leaned towards Russia. Russia was most likely always Plan B. At least.

[1] http://abcnews.go.com/International/nsa-leaker-edward-snowden-seeks-asylum-ecuador/story?id=19466318
[2] https://www.rt.com/news/snowden-fly-moscow-aeroflot-125/
[3] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/report-snowden-stayed-at-russian-consulate-while-in-hong-kong/2013/08/26/8237cf9a-0e39-11e3-a2b3-5e107edf9897_story.html
[4] http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424127887323623304579054890606102138
[5] http://www.wsj.com/articles/edward-jay-epstein-revisiting-snowdens-hong-kong-getaway-1404075875
[6] http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/snowden-and-greenwald-the-men-who-leaked-the-secrets-20131204?page=6
[7] http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/06/25/greenwald-snowden-s-files-are-out-there-if-anything-happens-to-him.html